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Open AccessDOI: 10.16081/j.epae.202607004Original Research

Spatiotemporal Thermodynamic Dynamic Load Modeling and Characteristic Analysis of Data Centers for Power System Applications

State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment Technology, Chongqing University

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Spatiotemporal Thermodynamic Dynamic Load Modeling and Characteristic Analysis of Data Centers for Power System Applications
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Published In
Power Automation Equipment
Published:January 15, 2026Edition:Vol 46, Issue 8 • pp. 100-112Citation:ZHOU Niancheng et al. (2026), Power Automation Equipment
Impact FactorPeer-Reviewed Core
Source Journal电力自动化设备

Key Takeaways & Executive Findings

  • • • Traditional models (PUE, RC) that ignore server layout, cold aisle containment, and load time-series cause instantaneous load discrepancies of 12.56%–34.21%, directly undermining peak load and ramp-rate analyses for grid planning and demand response. • • The CFD-based model reveals a nonlinear dynamic coupling among IT load, temperature field, and cooling power, demonstrating that data center load is dominated by internal thermophysical dynamics rather than a linear mapping of instantaneous IT load. • • Compared to static PUE models, the proposed model captures thermal inertia-induced power delays and dynamic fluctuations; unlike second-order RC gray-box models, it quantifies the decisive influence of physical parameters such as server layout on non-uniform temperature fields and local hot spots. • • The model enables deep coupling with grid planning models via constraints, boundaries, and variable transfer, supporting second-level (or even millisecond-level) transient simulations integrated into long-term planning—a recent hotspot in equipment planning research.
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Abstract

Data center expansion has driven a surge in energy consumption, and prediction deviations for high-density loads introduce risks to power grid planning and operation. Existing models exhibit significant limitations: they neglect temperature non-uniformity and the nonlinear impact of rack layout on airflow; rely on static power usage effectiveness (PUE) without accounting for the coupling between load fluctuations and cooling dynamic response; and linearize cooling systems, ignoring IT equipment–cooling system–thermal environment interactions. This paper proposes a spatiotemporal thermodynamic dynamic load model for data centers based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Spatially, a physical model incorporating cold aisle containment, server power, and layout is constructed; CFD simulations capture temperature non-uniformity and establish a collaborative IT power–temperature field–cooling power model. Temporally, IT load time-series fluctuations, thermal inertia response, and cooling power dynamics are coupled to quantify the impact of physical parameters on overall load at short time scales. Simulation results for a typical day show that traditional models, by neglecting these key parameters, may cause instantaneous load discrepancies of 12.56%–34.21%. Data center load characteristics are strongly coupled with internal thermal environment dynamics, and the proposed model provides a high-fidelity thermodynamic reference for data centers participating in grid interaction as flexible resources.

1. Introduction

Existing power system studies predominantly model data center loads using power usage efficiency (PUE), reducing the instantaneous load to a linear function of IT power. This simplification fails to represent the dynamic interactions among IT equipment, cooling systems, and the thermal environment. Spatially, data centers exhibit non-uniform temperature fields with local hot spots; rack layout and server distribution govern rack-level thermal recirculation, and over-simplified temperature treatment in cooling energy calculations introduces significant errors. Temporally, server power fluctuations induce cooling capacity variations, and instantaneous cooling power is real-time dependent on local temperatures. Static annual PUE cannot capture the coupling between IT load time-series fluctuations and cooling system dynamic response.

Cooling systems account for approximately 40% of total data center power consumption, making their accurate modeling critical for overall load model fidelity. National standards mandate CFD for airflow organization verification. Traditional mathematical-analytical energy models oversimplify temperature and struggle to capture thermal dynamics. While thermodynamic gray-box models using resistance-capacitance (RC) networks improve physical interpretability and temporal dynamics, they assume uniform temperature distribution and neglect spatial non-uniformity from complex airflow—particularly the nonlinear driving mechanism of local hot spots on cooling energy. This paper systematically introduces CFD, a high-fidelity simulation technology well-validated in thermodynamics and fluid mechanics, into power system data center load modeling to accurately reflect the impact of server layout, ambient temperature, and server load time-series on energy consumption.

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Cite This Research Paper
ZHOU Niancheng, XU Ying, CHI Yuan, XU Luona, ZHOU Yiyao, LUO Yongjie (2026). Spatiotemporal Thermodynamic Dynamic Load Modeling and Characteristic Analysis of Data Centers for Power System Applications. Power Automation Equipment. https://doi.org/10.16081/j.epae.202607004
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the quantified load discrepancy between the proposed CFD-based model and traditional models, and what physical parameters drive this gap?

The proposed model reveals instantaneous load discrepancies of 12.56%–34.21% compared to traditional models. This gap is driven by the neglect of server layout, cold aisle containment, and load time-series in conventional PUE or RC models. These factors determine the non-uniform temperature field and local hot spots, which nonlinearly affect cooling power.

How does the model handle the trade-off between computational cost and accuracy for power system planning studies?

The CFD model provides a high-fidelity thermodynamic reference with physical completeness. It can be coupled with grid planning models via constraints, boundaries, and variable transfer, enabling second-level (or millisecond-level) transient simulations integrated into long-term planning. This approach balances accuracy and computational feasibility for planning studies.

What are the key limitations of existing RC gray-box models that this work addresses?

RC gray-box models assume uniform temperature distribution and fail to account for spatial non-uniformity caused by complex airflow organization. They also neglect the nonlinear driving mechanism of local hot spots on cooling energy. The proposed CFD model captures these effects, providing a more accurate representation of IT load–temperature–cooling power coupling.

How does thermal inertia affect the dynamic response of data center loads, and how is it modeled?

Thermal inertia induces power delays and dynamic fluctuations in cooling systems. The proposed model couples IT load time-series fluctuations, thermal inertia response, and cooling power dynamics to quantify short-time-scale impacts. This contrasts with static PUE models that cannot capture such transient behavior.

What is the industrial relevance of the 40% cooling power share in data centers, and how does the model improve upon it?

Cooling systems consume approximately 40% of total data center power. Traditional models use fixed COP or PUE, ignoring real-time local temperature effects. The CFD-based model captures the nonlinear coupling between IT power, temperature field, and cooling power, enabling more accurate prediction of cooling energy and overall load.

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