Key Takeaways & Executive Findings
- •• • Under CN60 and CN50 scenarios, total energy consumption in Guangdong by 2060 falls by 39% and 44% relative to baseline, respectively, with primary electricity and other energy reaching 56% and 60% shares, demonstrating the critical role of electrification in decarbonization. • • GHG emissions under CN60 decline to 80×10^6 tCO2e by 2060 (89% below 2020), while CN50 achieves 92×10^6 tCO2e in 2050 and 55×10^6 tCO2e in 2060 (87% and 92% reductions), quantifying the pace required for different carbon neutrality targets. • • Increasing the share of clean electricity is the largest single source of emission reductions, while policies such as improving industrial energy efficiency standards and increasing clean energy vehicle penetration are cost-effective, with cumulative reduction contributions exceeding 5% for industrial electrification (hydrogen) but facing short-term economic barriers. • • Industrial carbon capture and storage and electrolytic hydrogen contribute less than 2% cumulative reduction and entail high costs, indicating that these technologies require further cost reductions or policy support to be viable in the near term.
Abstract
To mitigate global warming, regional carbon neutrality pathways are critical. Based on the Guangdong Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model, this study simulates total energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under baseline, Carbon Neutral 60 (CN60), and Carbon Neutral 50 (CN50) scenarios, and analyzes the emission reduction effects and costs of various energy policies. Results show that by 2060, total energy consumption under CN60 and CN50 decreases by 39% and 44% relative to baseline, respectively. Primary electricity and other energy, natural gas, oil, and coal account for 56%, 26%, 14%, and 4% under CN60, and 60%, 24%, 13%, and 3% under CN50. GHG emissions under CN60 drop to 80×10^6 tCO2e by 2060, an 89% reduction from 2020; under CN50, emissions reach 92 and 55×10^6 tCO2e in 2050 and 2060, respectively, reductions of 87% and 92% from 2020. Policies such as increasing clean electricity share, industrial electrification (hydrogen), increasing green power purchases, building electrification, F-gas reduction, and improving industrial energy efficiency standards show significant reduction effects, with clean electricity share being the primary source. Policies like improving industrial energy efficiency standards, increasing industrial product utilization, and increasing clean energy vehicle market penetration are cost-effective; increasing clean electricity share, green power purchases, building electrification, and F-gas reduction effectively balance reduction effects and costs. Industrial electrification (hydrogen) contributes >5% cumulative reduction but faces economic challenges for full-scale promotion in the short term; industrial carbon capture and storage and electrolytic hydrogen contribute <2% cumulative reduction with high costs. Therefore, Guangdong should prioritize cost-effective policies, promote balanced policies, gradually optimize energy structure, achieve clean electricity, and foster green industrial transformation to achieve carbon neutrality at lower economic cost.
1. Introduction
Guangdong Province, as China's economic powerhouse, faces a critical challenge: balancing rapid socioeconomic development with ambitious carbon neutrality goals. Despite contributing 10.7% of the national GDP, the province consumes only 6.7% of national energy and emits 5% of national carbon, yet its energy self-sufficiency rate is below 26%, and fossil fuels dominate its energy mix. Existing studies on carbon neutrality pathways often focus on technological roadmaps but lack comprehensive assessments of the emission reduction effects and economic costs of specific energy policies. This gap hinders the design of cost-effective policy portfolios for regional decarbonization.
To address this, the present study employs the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), a system dynamics model that integrates top-down and bottom-up approaches, to simulate Guangdong's energy system under three scenarios: baseline, CN60, and CN50. By quantifying the emission reduction contributions and costs of 30+ policies, this research identifies which policies offer the greatest reduction per unit cost and which require careful balancing. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers to prioritize high-impact, cost-effective measures while managing the economic burden of the transition.
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LIU Jiangtao, LIU Zhen, LIAO Cuiping, HUANG Ying (2026). Emission Reduction Effects and Costs of Energy Policies under Carbon Neutrality Pathways in Guangdong Province. Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering. https://doi.org/10.12030/j.cjee.202507032
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the specific emission reduction contributions of individual policies under the CN60 scenario, and which policies exhibit the highest cost-effectiveness?
Under CN60, increasing the share of clean electricity is the largest reduction source, while policies such as improving industrial energy efficiency standards and increasing clean energy vehicle penetration are cost-effective. Industrial electrification (hydrogen) contributes >5% cumulative reduction but faces short-term economic challenges, whereas industrial carbon capture and storage and electrolytic hydrogen contribute <2% with high costs.
How do the energy consumption structures differ between CN60 and CN50 scenarios by 2060, and what are the implications for energy security?
By 2060, primary electricity and other energy account for 56% under CN60 and 60% under CN50, while natural gas, oil, and coal shares are 26%, 14%, 4% and 24%, 13%, 3%, respectively. The higher electrification under CN50 reduces fossil fuel dependence, enhancing energy security but requiring faster deployment of clean power and grid infrastructure.
What are the cumulative GHG emission reductions by 2050 and 2060 under CN60 and CN50, and how do they align with China's national targets?
Under CN60, emissions drop to 80×10^6 tCO2e by 2060 (89% below 2020). Under CN50, emissions reach 92×10^6 tCO2e in 2050 and 55×10^6 tCO2e in 2060, reductions of 87% and 92% from 2020. These trajectories are consistent with achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, with CN50 representing a more aggressive pathway.
Which policies are identified as cost-effective, and what are their specific reduction costs compared to high-cost measures?
Cost-effective policies include improving industrial energy efficiency standards, increasing industrial product utilization, and increasing clean energy vehicle market penetration. In contrast, industrial carbon capture and storage and electrolytic hydrogen have high reduction costs and contribute less than 2% cumulative reduction, indicating they are not yet economically viable without further technological advancements or subsidies.
How does the EPS model account for the interaction between energy supply and demand sectors, and what are the key assumptions for Guangdong's local parameters?
The EPS model integrates energy consumption modules (industry, building, transport) with supply modules (power, hydrogen) and includes modules for R&D, fuel, carbon capture, cash flow, and GHG emissions. Local parameters are calibrated using Guangdong statistics and energy plans, ensuring regional specificity. The model simulates dynamic feedback between sectors, allowing assessment of policy interactions and cumulative effects.
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