• • Under CN60 and CN50 scenarios, total energy consumption in Guangdong by 2060 falls by 39% and 44% relative to baseline, respectively, with primary electricity and other energy reaching 56% and 60% shares, demonstrating the critical role of electrification in decarbonization.
• • GHG emissions under CN60 decline to 80×10^6 tCO2e by 2060 (89% below 2020), while CN50 achieves 92×10^6 tCO2e in 2050 and 55×10^6 tCO2e in 2060 (87% and 92% reductions), quantifying the pace required for different carbon neutrality targets.
• • Increasing the share of clean electricity is the largest single source of emission reductions, while policies such as improving industrial energy efficiency standards and increasing clean energy vehicle penetration are cost-effective, with cumulative reduction contributions exceeding 5% for industrial electrification (hydrogen) but facing short-term economic barriers.
• • Industrial carbon capture and storage and electrolytic hydrogen contribute less than 2% cumulative reduction and entail high costs, indicating that these technologies require further cost reductions or policy support to be viable in the near term.