Emission Reduction Effects and Costs of Energy Policies under Carbon Neutrality Pathways in Guangdong Province
To mitigate global warming, regional carbon neutrality pathways are critical. Based on the Guangdong Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model, this study simulates total energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under baseline, Carbon Neutral 60 (CN60), and Carbon Neutral 50 (CN50) scenarios, and analyzes the emission reduction effects and costs of various energy policies. Results show that by 2060, total energy consumption under CN60 and CN50 decreases by 39% and 44% relative to baseline, respectively. Primary electricity and other energy, natural gas, oil, and coal account for 56%, 26%, 14%, and 4% under CN60, and 60%, 24%, 13%, and 3% under CN50. GHG emissions under CN60 drop to 80×10^6 tCO2e by 2060, an 89% reduction from 2020; under CN50, emissions reach 92 and 55×10^6 tCO2e in 2050 and 2060, respectively, reductions of 87% and 92% from 2020. Policies such as increasing clean electricity share, industrial electrification (hydrogen), increasing green power purchases, building electrification, F-gas reduction, and improving industrial energy efficiency standards show significant reduction effects, with clean electricity share being the primary source. Policies like improving industrial energy efficiency standards, increasing industrial product utilization, and increasing clean energy vehicle market penetration are cost-effective; increasing clean electricity share, green power purchases, building electrification, and F-gas reduction effectively balance reduction effects and costs. Industrial electrification (hydrogen) contributes >5% cumulative reduction but faces economic challenges for full-scale promotion in the short term; industrial carbon capture and storage and electrolytic hydrogen contribute <2% cumulative reduction with high costs. Therefore, Guangdong should prioritize cost-effective policies, promote balanced policies, gradually optimize energy structure, achieve clean electricity, and foster green industrial transformation to achieve carbon neutrality at lower economic cost.