Key Takeaways & Executive Findings
- •• • Terrestrial carbon absorption declined continuously from 2010 to 2020, with net absorption decreasing by [specific % not provided] annually, indicating a persistent drop in carbon sequestration capacity; this trend underscores the urgency of protecting existing sinks. • • Anthropogenic carbon emissions rose steadily, but growth rate sharply declined after 2015; energy consumption accounted for >95% of emissions per division and 99% regionally, highlighting the dominant role of fossil fuel combustion. • • By 2020, the 8th, 13th, and 6th Divisions, covering 26.52% of the land area, contributed 78.16% of net carbon emissions, demonstrating extreme spatial concentration and the need for targeted mitigation policies. • • Carbon balance zoning classified the region into 1 carbon sink functional zone, 9 low-carbon maintenance zones, and 3 high-carbon optimization zones, with high-carbon zones forming a strip in the central-east covering 26.52% of the area, guiding differentiated low-carbon strategies.
Abstract
Accurate accounting of county-level carbon budgets and their spatio-temporal evolution is essential for formulating low-carbon development strategies tailored to each division and achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study constructed a comprehensive, accurate, and unified model to measure terrestrial ecosystem carbon absorption, anthropogenic carbon emissions, and net carbon budget from 2010 to 2020 across the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps and its divisions. Results indicate: (1) Terrestrial ecosystems consistently acted as net carbon sinks, but total carbon absorption declined slowly, with carbon sequestration capacity persistently decreasing. Cultivated land, the sole carbon source, expanded rapidly into forests and grasslands. Anthropogenic carbon emissions rose steadily, with growth rates sharply decelerating after 2015, exhibiting a spatial pattern of "high in the north and east, low in the south and west." (2) Total carbon emissions/absorptions increased rapidly from 2010 to 2015, then slowed from 2015 to 2020. Energy consumption dominated, contributing over 95% of emissions in each division and 99% regionally. High-emission zones expanded eastward from the 8th Division in the Junggar Basin; by 2020, the 8th, 13th, and 6th Divisions, occupying 26.52% of the land area, carried 78.16% of net carbon emissions, marking them as high-density emission zones. (3) Carbon balance zoning in 2020 identified one carbon sink functional zone, nine low-carbon maintenance zones, and three high-carbon optimization zones, the latter concentrated in a strip in the central-eastern region covering 26.52% of the area.
1. Introduction
Regional carbon budget assessments are critical for aligning economic development with climate goals. Existing studies often rely on coarse administrative boundaries or single-source emission inventories, failing to capture the spatial heterogeneity of terrestrial carbon sinks and anthropogenic sources. This study addresses this gap by integrating land-use-based carbon absorption models with energy consumption and human respiration data at the county level, providing a unified framework for the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps—a region undergoing rapid agricultural expansion and industrial growth.
The methodological bottleneck lies in reconciling diverse data sources and scales. By constructing a spatially explicit model that accounts for both natural and anthropogenic carbon fluxes, this work enables precise identification of carbon imbalance zones. The findings reveal a stark contrast between carbon sink decline and emission growth, particularly in the northern and eastern divisions, where energy-intensive activities concentrate. This spatial granularity is essential for formulating effective carbon reduction strategies that are both economically viable and ecologically sustainable.
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CHEN Dongqin, CHENG Zhiyun, XIONG Wencheng, LU Xiangjun (2026). Spatio-temporal Evolution Patterns of Carbon Budget in the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology. https://doi.org/10.13205/j.hjgc.202604028
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the primary drivers of the spatial heterogeneity in carbon emissions across the divisions?
Energy consumption is the dominant driver, accounting for over 95% of emissions in each division and 99% regionally. The spatial pattern of 'high in the north and east, low in the south and west' correlates with industrial concentration and urbanization, particularly in the 8th, 13th, and 6th Divisions, which together contribute 78.16% of net emissions.
How does the carbon absorption trend affect the overall carbon budget?
Terrestrial carbon absorption has been declining slowly but consistently, indicating a reduction in carbon sequestration capacity. This decline, coupled with rising emissions, exacerbates the net carbon budget deficit, especially in regions where land use changes convert carbon sinks to sources.
What is the significance of the carbon balance zoning for policy-making?
The zoning identifies one carbon sink functional zone, nine low-carbon maintenance zones, and three high-carbon optimization zones. This classification enables tailored strategies: protecting sink zones, maintaining low-carbon practices, and implementing aggressive reduction measures in high-carbon zones, which cover 26.52% of the area.
How reliable are the emission estimates given the reliance on energy consumption data?
The model integrates multiple data sources, including energy statistics and land use, to ensure accuracy. However, uncertainties remain due to emission factors and data resolution. The study's consistency with regional trends and its ability to capture spatial patterns suggest robustness, but further validation with ground-based measurements is recommended.
What are the implications of the post-2015 slowdown in emission growth?
The sharp deceleration after 2015 may reflect policy interventions and structural changes, such as improved energy efficiency or shifts in industrial composition. This trend offers a window for accelerating decarbonization, but sustained efforts are needed to ensure long-term emission reductions.
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