Spatio-temporal Evolution Patterns of Carbon Budget in the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps
Accurate accounting of county-level carbon budgets and their spatio-temporal evolution is essential for formulating low-carbon development strategies tailored to each division and achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study constructed a comprehensive, accurate, and unified model to measure terrestrial ecosystem carbon absorption, anthropogenic carbon emissions, and net carbon budget from 2010 to 2020 across the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps and its divisions. Results indicate: (1) Terrestrial ecosystems consistently acted as net carbon sinks, but total carbon absorption declined slowly, with carbon sequestration capacity persistently decreasing. Cultivated land, the sole carbon source, expanded rapidly into forests and grasslands. Anthropogenic carbon emissions rose steadily, with growth rates sharply decelerating after 2015, exhibiting a spatial pattern of "high in the north and east, low in the south and west." (2) Total carbon emissions/absorptions increased rapidly from 2010 to 2015, then slowed from 2015 to 2020. Energy consumption dominated, contributing over 95% of emissions in each division and 99% regionally. High-emission zones expanded eastward from the 8th Division in the Junggar Basin; by 2020, the 8th, 13th, and 6th Divisions, occupying 26.52% of the land area, carried 78.16% of net carbon emissions, marking them as high-density emission zones. (3) Carbon balance zoning in 2020 identified one carbon sink functional zone, nine low-carbon maintenance zones, and three high-carbon optimization zones, the latter concentrated in a strip in the central-eastern region covering 26.52% of the area.