Key Takeaways & Executive Findings
- •• • Under SSP119, desert area decreases by 0.69% by 2050, while under SSP585 it expands by 5.7%, with grassland loss of 23.0%, highlighting divergent land degradation pathways under climate policies. • • Water yield under SSP119 reaches 147.6×10^8 t by 2050, whereas SSP585 yields only 43.9×10^8 t, a 70% reduction, underscoring the severe impact of extreme climate on water availability. • • Precipitation and DEM are the primary drivers of water yield spatial distribution, with their interaction (land use × precipitation) exerting the strongest influence, indicating that land management can modulate water yield by up to 23%. • • The south-high, north-low water yield pattern persists across scenarios, with high-yield zones confined to glacier and high-altitude areas, emphasizing the critical role of mountainous recharge in arid basins.
Abstract
The Shule River Basin, a typical arid inland river basin, faces critical water scarcity that threatens ecological security and sustainable development. This study integrated the FLUS and InVEST models to simulate water yield in 2030 and 2050 under three climate scenarios (SSP119, SSP245, SSP585). Geographic detectors quantified the driving mechanisms of natural and human factors. Results showed: (1) Desert dominates land use (78.6% in 2020). Under SSP119, desert area decreases by 0.69% by 2050, while under SSP585 it expands by 5.7%, with grassland loss of 23.0%, indicating severe ecological degradation. (2) Water yield exhibits a south-high, north-low spatial pattern, with high values in glacier-covered and high-altitude areas. SSP119 yields the most significant increase (147.6×10^8 t by 2050), whereas SSP585 shows minimal increase (43.9×10^8 t) due to extreme climate. (3) Precipitation and DEM are core driving factors; the interaction between land use type and precipitation has the strongest influence, implying that artificial land use changes can significantly regulate water yield. This multi-scenario framework provides decision support for water resource management and ecological governance in arid inland river basins.
1. Introduction
Arid inland river basins face acute water scarcity, where water yield services are pivotal for ecological integrity and socioeconomic stability. Conventional water resource assessments often rely on historical observations or single-factor analyses, failing to capture the compounded effects of future climate and land use changes. The Shule River Basin exemplifies this challenge, with desertification and water shortages intensifying under climate stress. Existing modeling efforts, such as those using InVEST alone, lack integrated future land use projections, limiting their capacity to inform adaptive management.
This study addresses this bottleneck by coupling FLUS and InVEST models to simulate water yield under multiple climate and land use scenarios (SSP119, SSP245, SSP585) for 2030 and 2050. This integrated approach enables quantitative evaluation of how alternative development pathways alter land use patterns and, consequently, water yield. By incorporating geographic detectors, the study identifies dominant drivers and their interactions, providing a robust framework for scenario-based water resource planning in arid regions.
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SHI Peng, JIA Yiyang, ZHOU Dongmei, JIANG Jing, MA Jing, ZHU Xiaoyan, ZHANG Jun (2026). Multi-Scenario Simulation of Water Yield Services in the Shule River Basin Based on Climate and Land Use Changes. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology. https://doi.org/10.13205/j.hjgc.202604017
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does the FLUS-InVEST coupling improve water yield predictions compared to using InVEST alone?
The coupling allows dynamic simulation of land use changes under different climate scenarios, which directly influences water yield through evapotranspiration and runoff coefficients. In this study, land use projections under SSP119 and SSP585 lead to divergent water yield outcomes (147.6 vs. 43.9×10^8 t by 2050), demonstrating that static land use inputs would miss these critical feedbacks.
What are the key drivers of water yield spatial variability, and how do they interact?
Precipitation and DEM are the primary drivers, with their interaction (land use type × precipitation) showing the strongest influence. This implies that land use management can amplify or dampen precipitation effects, offering a lever for water yield regulation.
What is the impact of extreme climate (SSP585) on land use and water yield?
Under SSP585, desert area expands by 5.7% and grassland declines by 23.0% by 2050, leading to a water yield of only 43.9×10^8 t—a 70% reduction compared to SSP119. This highlights the severe ecological and hydrological consequences of high-emission pathways.
How reliable are the model outputs for policy-making in arid basins?
The models are calibrated with historical data and validated against observed water yield patterns. However, uncertainties arise from climate projections and land use policies. The multi-scenario approach provides a range of possible futures, enabling robust decision-making under uncertainty.
Can land use changes effectively mitigate water scarcity in the Shule River Basin?
Yes, the interaction between land use and precipitation is the strongest driver, suggesting that targeted land use planning (e.g., reducing desertification, restoring grasslands) can significantly enhance water yield. For instance, under SSP119, a 0.69% decrease in desert area corresponds to a substantial increase in water yield, demonstrating the potential for nature-based solutions.
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