Multi-Scenario Simulation of Water Yield Services in the Shule River Basin Based on Climate and Land Use Changes
The Shule River Basin, a typical arid inland river basin, faces critical water scarcity that threatens ecological security and sustainable development. This study integrated the FLUS and InVEST models to simulate water yield in 2030 and 2050 under three climate scenarios (SSP119, SSP245, SSP585). Geographic detectors quantified the driving mechanisms of natural and human factors. Results showed: (1) Desert dominates land use (78.6% in 2020). Under SSP119, desert area decreases by 0.69% by 2050, while under SSP585 it expands by 5.7%, with grassland loss of 23.0%, indicating severe ecological degradation. (2) Water yield exhibits a south-high, north-low spatial pattern, with high values in glacier-covered and high-altitude areas. SSP119 yields the most significant increase (147.6×10^8 t by 2050), whereas SSP585 shows minimal increase (43.9×10^8 t) due to extreme climate. (3) Precipitation and DEM are core driving factors; the interaction between land use type and precipitation has the strongest influence, implying that artificial land use changes can significantly regulate water yield. This multi-scenario framework provides decision support for water resource management and ecological governance in arid inland river basins.