Key Takeaways & Executive Findings
- •• • In 2020, the offshore wind sector achieved significant CO2 emission reductions, but without CCER subsidies, the projected 2025 financial deficit risk emerges, indicating a critical dependency on carbon credit revenues for economic sustainability. • • The largest air pollutant reduction is for nitrogen oxides (NOx), while sulfur dioxide (SO2) reduction provides the most substantial co-benefits, quantified through emission inventories and grid factors. • • Economic feasibility analysis for 2020 and 2025 shows profitability when CCER revenues are included, but the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and market carbon pricing dynamics are decisive factors. • • Coastal provinces with advanced economies demonstrate higher potential for offshore wind development, driven by infrastructure and policy advantages, as evidenced by provincial emission reduction disparities.
Abstract
The national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was relaunched in 2023, with China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) as the trading unit, serving as a crucial supplement to the national carbon market. The initial phase includes the offshore wind power sector. This study evaluates the CO2 and air pollutant emission reduction effectiveness and economic feasibility of China's offshore wind power industry under the CCER mechanism. Using CCER methodology, baseline scenario analysis, and empirical data from 2020 and projections for 2025, we quantify reductions in CO2 and principal air pollutants (particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) across coastal provinces. Emission inventories are constructed using authoritative grid emission factors. Economic viability is assessed by integrating levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), additional revenues from CCER transactions, and external environmental benefits. Results provide four policy insights: (1) The sector shows a positive trend in emission reduction and economic-environmental contribution, but faces financial deficit risk by 2025 without CCER subsidies; (2) Economically developed coastal provinces exhibit greater development potential; (3) Profitability analysis for 2020 and 2025 indicates sustainable economic returns with appropriate policy support; (4) Among air pollutants, nitrogen oxides reduction is largest, while sulfur dioxide reduction yields the most significant co-benefits. This study offers evidence-based recommendations for strategic planning and policy formulation in China's offshore wind industry.
1. Introduction
The global push for carbon neutrality has intensified the need for robust emission reduction mechanisms. China's national carbon market, initially covering power and industry sectors, has been supplemented by the voluntary CCER market, relaunched in 2023. Offshore wind power, a key renewable energy source, was among the first sectors included. However, the economic viability of offshore wind projects remains uncertain, particularly without carbon credit subsidies. Existing commercial approaches often overlook the dual benefits of CO2 and air pollutant reductions, leading to underinvestment in regions with high abatement potential.
This study addresses the bottleneck by systematically quantifying the emission reduction potential and economic feasibility of offshore wind power under the CCER framework. By integrating baseline scenario analysis, provincial emission inventories, and LCOE calculations, we provide a comprehensive assessment that captures both climate and air quality co-benefits. The findings offer actionable insights for policymakers and investors, highlighting the critical role of CCER revenues in ensuring financial sustainability and guiding strategic deployment in economically viable coastal provinces.
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LI Yun, SUN Yaqi, LIU Xintong, HAN Yaxuan, XUE Xiaoda (2026). Assessment of Emission Reduction Potential and Economic Feasibility for China's Offshore Wind Power Industry Based on the CCER Mechanism. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology. https://doi.org/10.13205/j.hjgc.202605015
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected financial performance of offshore wind power in 2025 without CCER subsidies?
The study indicates that without CCER subsidies, the offshore wind power sector faces a risk of financial deficits by 2025. This is based on LCOE projections and revenue analysis, where carbon credit revenues are essential to offset operational costs.
Which air pollutant shows the largest reduction from offshore wind development, and which yields the most significant co-benefits?
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) show the largest reduction, while sulfur dioxide (SO2) reduction yields the most significant co-benefits. These findings are derived from emission inventories and grid emission factors, quantifying the environmental health benefits.
How does the economic feasibility vary across coastal provinces?
Economically developed coastal provinces exhibit greater potential for offshore wind development due to better infrastructure, policy support, and higher electricity demand. This is reflected in higher emission reduction potentials and more favorable economic returns.
What is the role of CCER revenues in the profitability of offshore wind projects?
CCER revenues are critical for profitability. In both 2020 and 2025 scenarios, including CCER revenues ensures economic viability, whereas their absence leads to potential losses, especially in 2025. This underscores the importance of carbon credit markets in supporting renewable energy deployment.
What methodology was used to calculate emission reductions?
The study adopted the CCER methodology, using baseline scenario analysis and empirical data from 2020 and projections for 2025. Emission inventories were constructed for different coastal provinces, applying authoritative grid emission factors to calculate CO2 and air pollutant reductions attributable to offshore wind expansion.
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