Assessment of Emission Reduction Potential and Economic Feasibility for China's Offshore Wind Power Industry Based on the CCER Mechanism
The national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market was relaunched in 2023, with China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) as the trading unit, serving as a crucial supplement to the national carbon market. The initial phase includes the offshore wind power sector. This study evaluates the CO2 and air pollutant emission reduction effectiveness and economic feasibility of China's offshore wind power industry under the CCER mechanism. Using CCER methodology, baseline scenario analysis, and empirical data from 2020 and projections for 2025, we quantify reductions in CO2 and principal air pollutants (particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) across coastal provinces. Emission inventories are constructed using authoritative grid emission factors. Economic viability is assessed by integrating levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), additional revenues from CCER transactions, and external environmental benefits. Results provide four policy insights: (1) The sector shows a positive trend in emission reduction and economic-environmental contribution, but faces financial deficit risk by 2025 without CCER subsidies; (2) Economically developed coastal provinces exhibit greater development potential; (3) Profitability analysis for 2020 and 2025 indicates sustainable economic returns with appropriate policy support; (4) Among air pollutants, nitrogen oxides reduction is largest, while sulfur dioxide reduction yields the most significant co-benefits. This study offers evidence-based recommendations for strategic planning and policy formulation in China's offshore wind industry.