Emission Inventory and Scenario Prediction of Non-Road Mobile Sources in Hebei Province
Based on the 2022 activity data of non-road mobile sources in Hebei Province, this study employed the emission factor method recommended by the Guidelines to estimate emissions of CO, HC, NOx, PM2.5, PM10, and SO2. A comprehensive emission inventory was established, followed by spatial and uncertainty analyses. Scenario analysis, aligned with the 14th Five-Year Plan policies, was used to project emissions for 2030. The results indicate that non-road mobile sources in Hebei emitted 76.1×10^3 t of CO, 20.6×10^3 t of HC, 164.0×10^3 t of NOx, 8.5×10^3 t of PM2.5, 9.0×10^3 t of PM10, and 2.4×10^3 t of SO2. Agricultural machinery was the dominant contributor to CO, HC, PM2.5, and PM10, accounting for over 60.0% of CO emissions. Railway locomotives were the primary source of NOx, contributing 50.9%. For SO2, agricultural machinery and railway locomotives contributed 39.0% and 44.4%, respectively. The highest emitting cities were Tangshan (21.3%), Shijiazhuang (15.7%), Cangzhou (11.6%), and Handan (11.6%). Ship emissions were concentrated in Tangshan Port; civil aviation emissions were mainly in Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao, and Handan; railway emissions were distributed in Shijiazhuang, Baoding, and Handan. Under the updated emission standard scenario, NOx and PM10 emissions in 2030 could be reduced by approximately 35.0%. The phase-out of old machinery yielded the largest reduction in CO (36.0%), while both electrification and phase-out scenarios significantly impacted HC emissions.