Emission Inventory and Scenario Prediction of Non-Road Mobile Sources in Hebei Province

• • In 2022, Hebei's non-road mobile sources emitted 76.1×10^3 t CO, 20.6×10^3 t HC, 164.0×10^3 t NOx, 8.5×10^3 t PM2.5, 9.0×10^3 t PM10, and 2.4×10^3 t SO2, with agricultural machinery contributing >60% to CO, HC, PM2.5, and PM10, and railway locomotives contributing 50.9% to NOx. • • Spatial analysis identified Tangshan (21.3%), Shijiazhuang (15.7%), Cangzhou (11.6%), and Handan (11.6%) as the top four emitting cities, guiding targeted regional emission control strategies. • • Scenario analysis for 2030 shows that updating emission standards could reduce NOx and PM10 by ~35.0%, while phasing out old machinery could cut CO by 36.0%, and both electrification and phase-out scenarios significantly reduce HC emissions. • • The study provides a high-resolution emission inventory for Hebei, enabling policy-makers to prioritize control measures for agricultural machinery and railway locomotives, which are the dominant sources of multiple pollutants.