Carbon Emission Analysis and Reduction Scenario Prediction of Municipal Solid Waste Based on LCA-SD Model
Municipal solid waste (MSW) is a significant source of urban carbon emissions. This study integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) and system dynamics (SD) to construct a multi-subsystem LCA-SD model covering economy, population, waste generation, transportation, treatment, and resource utilization, using Fuzhou City as a case study. The model was validated against historical data and uncertainty analysis. Carbon emissions from MSW transportation, treatment, and resource utilization during 2013–2023 were calculated, and emission trends under seven reduction scenarios for 2024–2035 were predicted. Results show that Fuzhou's MSW treatment evolved through three stages: 'landfill+incineration', 'treatment structure adjustment', and 'incineration+kitchen waste resource utilization', corresponding to emission growth, fluctuation, and reduction periods. In 2023, total net carbon emissions were 1.07×10^6 t CO2-eq, with incineration being the largest contributor (9.93×10^5 t), followed by transportation (2.93×10^4 t), leachate treatment (2.14×10^4 t), and kitchen waste treatment (7.90×10^3 t, negative emission). Scenario analysis indicates that without further measures, carbon neutrality cannot be achieved. Synergistic enhancement of kitchen waste separation and incineration power generation efficiency can significantly boost reduction, potentially achieving carbon neutrality by 2032. The study provides a dynamic accounting and scenario assessment framework for low-carbon transition of urban solid waste systems.