Carbon Emission Analysis and Reduction Scenario Prediction of Municipal Solid Waste Based on LCA-SD Model

• • In 2023, incineration dominated emissions at 9.93×10^5 t CO2-eq, while kitchen waste treatment via anaerobic digestion and composting achieved net negative emissions of -7.90×10^3 t, demonstrating its high mitigation potential. • • The LCA-SD model accurately reproduced historical emission trends (2013–2023), with simulation outputs closely matching statistical yearbook data, confirming its reliability for policy scenario testing. • • Under the combined scenario of increasing kitchen waste separation to 50% by 2030 and 80% by 2035, and raising incineration power generation efficiency from 25% to 30%, carbon neutrality is projected by 2032. • • Sensitivity analysis identified end-treatment structure and energy recovery efficiency as the most influential factors on net emissions, outweighing transportation electrification alone.