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Official PDF TranslationActa Energiae Solaris Sinica

Long-Term Variability of Solar Radiation over an Oasis on the Southern Margin of the Taklimakan Desert, 1961–2023

Authors: LIU Hongxia; GAO Jiacheng; MAIMAITIAILI Maimaitiyiming; HUANG Ling; ZHANG Guanfeng; GONG Qing

DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.202608_9686Status: Verified Translated Edition
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Key Findings in This Report

• • Annual global solar radiation increased at +7.03 MJ/m² per decade over 1961–2023, with a mean of 5946.57 MJ/m² and a maximum of 7333.62 MJ/m² in 2017; this sustained upward trend underpins long-term bankability for utility-scale solar deployment in the region. • • Mann-Kendall change-point analysis reveals a significant decline of −364.01 MJ/m² per decade during 1961–1986 (α = 0.01), reversing to a significant increase of +147.55 MJ/m² per decade during 1987–2023 (α = 0.05); this regime shift invalidates stationarity assumptions in historical resource assessments and requires time-dependent yield modeling. • • Seasonal radiation partitioning is summer 33%, spring 29%, autumn 23%, and winter 15%, with spring exhibiting the strongest upward trend at +23.66 MJ/m² per decade (α = 0.05) while autumn and winter decline at −10.33 and −9.37 MJ/m² per decade, respectively (not significant); this asymmetry affects seasonal storage sizing and maintenance scheduling. • • Precipitation, overcast, and cloudy conditions cause the most severe attenuation of global solar radiation, whereas clear and partly cloudy skies dominate the annual energy budget; accurate cloud-cover classification is therefore critical for intra-day power forecasting and grid integration.